The analysis of the knowledge about apple is how?

Beijing time on March 26, news, foreign media recently published articles, according to apple’s share price over the past six months showing a downward trend, all the way that led to speculation in the media and Wall Street, they swarmed in apple shares hit a record high, speculation this stock what height can be climbed; But when share prices downward again With the attitude of thrashed reservoir dogs announced the ending of the era of apple. So what is what apple will cause the freely guff analysis?

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for those who did not direct investment on the stock, the stock over the past six months the trajectory is like a breathtaking action movie, brings unparalleled stimulation.

since from mid-september last year hit an all-time high of $705, the stock is always present a persistent decline, hit $419, and then a slight rebound, rebound last week to close to $462. When apple’s shares hit a peak, learned of Wall Street analysts are in a rush to guess exactly what height can be up to the stock, buzzing to exactly if there were any doubt at the end of the day; In the current trough, they all turn, with the attitude of thrashed reservoir dogs announced the ending of the era of apple.

now all people noises question is: who is right? Apple shares exactly where to go?

the answer to the question is: I don’t know, you don’t know, CNBC also nobody knows. If someone want to tell you that he knew, you’d better hurry to run to the mountains, to remember when running hand to just cover your pockets.

no, we can say is, with apple and viewpoints about the mood of the stock market provides a perfect case study, through research the case to allow us to explore a problem, that is when the value of a company, how speculation and misunderstanding can overwhelm practical knowledge. When a company like apple become the focus of global attention, and the company like apple like mum about its plans, so this kind of speculation and bring to the effects of the misunderstanding will be even more intense.

in the apple stock market movement and strange information under the vacuum of the two together, created a wave analysis and market report, have pointed out that apple has lost the momentum of rapid development, the speed of the “run” has just just to keep up with samsung. Have closed apple, however, are in the field of smart phones to samsung, or any other competitors such as crown “hand over” (Reuters) point of view is wrong, or at least a hopeless immature ideas.

said that I should stop here and here to clean my interests first. I do not hold shares of apple, my family all use Mac computers, including three MacBook Air, but we are not the typical apple users, because of our four smartphone is not a iPhone. We don’t have it, nor any other tablet (excluding Kindle reading device); I’m still waiting for apple to make what I need. Since 1995, I would have been written about apple all kinds of “avatar”, and at that time I had read a lot of reports of the company have a root according to, of course also heard many honeyed words. Under normal circumstances, the spread of the latter will be more extensive.

when you to explore the behavior of apple in the stock market, there are a few important key point is to keep in mind. One of them is, apple shares fell coincide with a phase; In this phase, the apple into to the market’s most valuable companies in the United States, and the second gap is not small. In the last quarter of 2012, apple’s net income reached more than $130. At the time, apple market value under the higher of the two companies are exxon mobil and chevron, the two oil company’s share price will fluctuate with changes in the price of crude oil. If you want to find another industrial company outside of apple, then to look for the fourth, the position of the list is Microsoft at the time, its quarterly profit less than half of the apple.

in the stage of the longer one, apple’s earnings growth has been staggering. In 2009, the company’s net profit of $5.7 billion, the following year to reach $14 billion, by 2011 nearly doubled, to $26 billion. As for the apple of this size, you can’t find another company can have such a trajectory. In September 2012, apple shares hit a peak in the past, the growth of net profit and stock price is to maintain consistent, although the profit growth than rose faster.

but the ground say, whether apple’s shares are towards the top or fall into the trough, the authorities are doing is just “god movement” – in fact, it’s those allegedly report about apple, “the facts”. Financial firms need to weave into a legend story, let them the audience of the tireless. Before in the middle of September 2012, the people is the most popular story is that apple is “the master of the world:” don’t do anything wrong, will eventually grow to the generality of the whole earth in the height of the foot. But in the “light”, even the world dominated by stories have become pale, so the story becomes the apple has been passed on by word of mouth drops shrines, best days can only be seen in the rearview mirror, the company has become no longer cool, and the like.

strange mind will have an enduring reality version of the late apple co-founder Steve Jobs (Steve Jobs) and on the head with a halo of Steve Jobs confusion together; If the latter really existed, then only to Ashton Kutcher (Ashton Kutcher, the jobs in the “jobs” actor, silicon valley investment star) to look for the propaganda of the manuscripts. The idea is very popular, people are happy to see jobs as a visionary company executives, always invariably focus on user experience, and he will never make mistakes, never deign and open the level lower than the apple’s competitors, and so on.

what is the implication of hidden behind such determination of thesis is, as jobs’s successor, Tim Cook, Tim Cook has done all of these wrong, so he is bound to fail. But if someone want to undertake this kind of “god movement”, then make sure you have become less good memory, because all those with jobs that are wrong, these claims by many people to miss apple “old glory”.

in the latest wave of freely blind bye question apple outlook analysis report, the main focus is on the rise of the samsung. Last year, samsung’s smartphone sales reached 216 million units, including its high-end Galaxy model; By contrast, apple iPhone sales in 2012 is only for 136 million units (data from market research firm IDC). In another area, according to market research firm Gartner release number According to display, Google Android operating system in dueling platform market to further expand the apple iOS lead, in the fourth quarter of last year in the global smartphone market share of nearly 70%, while apple only occupies the 21% of the share.

in terms of the problem, and the critical mistake is samsung or Android users compared to the iPhone users; Compared to the former, the latter are willing to spend more money to buy smartphones, and in the process of use Also more energetic than the former two, they will buy the application of more than samsung or Android users, more time spent on the application. Market analysts pointed out that although the iPhone from sales side Has been overtaken by samsung, but this kind of products in the industry as a whole as a proportion of the total operating profit reached 70%, the samsung products is almost the rest of the share.

this kind of unbalanced state that authority to the confusion. “Many people don’t see, apple is standing in a very advantageous position, and everything runs very good; These people can see only the data, then I think apple has used up all the good luck.” Technical experts, a former software developer John Gruber (John Gruber) in an email that said to me, he made a lot on his website daringfireball.net blog posts about the apple.

when but also has the possibility of a thing is, samsung, and the market share gap between Android and apple will in the near future for the former “blossom”, then the developer more applications will be written for them, the more users will use them. But apple in the launch of innovative new products have an advantage in this area, and this advantage is not going to disappear soon, it is compared with Google or samsung, apple’s control since the technology get a lot more.

“for a technical breakthrough, if you want to become feasible in business, it must be conducted in a very complex way integration.” Former analysts, currently operates its own industry analysis of the company’s Horace DE dio (Horace Dediu) said. “All companies have the same thing, but apple is only on the planet can put all these things together company” – software, hardware, application, content, and so on. Samsung can produce mobile phone, but need to Google’s operating system to run (last year, Google bought his own hardware company MOTOROLA mobile).

dio think, compared with when the iPhone was introduced in 2007, today’s apple must be more effort to “run”, in order to maintain their position in the market competition. The introduction of popular and competitive products, apple’s competitors are becoming faster and better quality products – in the apple tablet computer a few months later, the market is filled with all kinds of tablets. The application of Android will attract more and better. Apple may need to develop a cheap iPhone to monopolize the low-end smartphone market. And no matter how you look at it, apple will not want to lay down and die.

it won’t be long before the media and Wall Street in the “god” will change its position again. What they have in creating about apple will launch next major product is speculation of a smart watch and or much-anticipated apple TV? Or like Google glasses wearable computer?

the presumed sounds have been devoid of angry, because they can’t answer without exception, the late social critic Neil Postman (Neil Postman) proposed by the technology of a rumor about a “breakthrough” question: “in order to solve the problem of what is the solution?” We use today, after all, what’s wrong with the TV? Watches have what not good? What’s wrong with glasses? At least as far as we now know that there is no reason to claim any one of these “solutions” to change your life. But one fact is that the authorities are mention heart frightening to consider to tell you what version of the apple story – although apple may one day lose consumer technology’s leading manufacturers of the throne, but after all, the day has not yet arrived.