as a coupling of the virtual world and real world, the role of electronic commerce in people’s life more and more important. Insiders what’s eyes electricity dealer market in five years? Alibaba in the era of mobile Internet can also dominance? Is platform model dominance or sale, overturn old pattern? Entrepreneurs in electricity industry and the opportunities? To see if dangdang former COO yellow how to say!
baidu news: old huang, over the past decade, China’s electricity compound growth rate of over 100%, the size of the market has more than 1.2 trillion yuan last year, do you think after five years, the scale can have how old?
huang: my personal judgment is the age of electricity business growth has basically come to an end, the future will transition to the annual growth of around 40%.
the growth rate of 100% over the past decade is unsustainable. First of all, China’s macroeconomic growth in gradual slowdown, the electricity industry could have a direct effect on; Followed by the demographic dividend gradually disappear, China is now in the online shopping population about 400 million latest data is 271 million (CNNIC), it is difficult to have explosive growth in the future. Taobao for two or three years from C2C income growth has been slowing, mainly rely on cat (B2C) growth drive overall growth.
baidu news: channel advantages of traditional retail stores to enter the electricity business is not very good case, these emerging Internet companies such as traditional enterprise why dozen however jingdong?
huang: I think the main reason is that the traditional enterprise is the Internet too don’t understand, the original advantage cannot play at all.
traditional enterprise online shopping habits don’t understand, for the users through acquisitions gathered talents and didn’t get a good appointment. Such as gome acquired kubah, but the original electric businessmen to get reuse, basic all lost, it’s a pity.
a lot of electrical business start-ups have first-mover advantage, traditional enterprise if use capital advantage, to integrate, can achieve the result of 1 plus 1 greater than 2. Now a lot of businesses use traditional acquisition quickly into the field of electricity, this is the beginning of awakening.
baidu news: you previously talked about on traditional enterprise into electricity, and that this part of the enterprise will become the future electricity a extremely important. So, these companies will be offline business onslaught?
huang: now the situation is the user has been in the online transfer, this is not the reverse trend.
traditional enterprise should not enter the electricity industry’s problems, but how to question, because you don’t into it is difficult to retain users. As for the enterprise internal competition, is secondary.
baidu news: you talked about last week in B2C electrical business on business model, and the current status of China is platform model, B2C market over the next five years will is platform pattern of the world?
huang: over the past ten years, whether online or offline, is dominating the world platform mode. But I personally think the trend won’t last, the future business model of the market share will increase.
the rapid development of the platform model is mainly thanks to the rapid development of China’s economy, but the platform model has a fatal weakness. First of all, platform model is the scale effect, depends on the soldier ants model, but 100 sellers each purchase 100 trousers average cost must be much higher than 10000 wal-mart one-time procurement. Second, the platform model cannot provide continuous shopping experience, every time you shopping are likely to face different sellers.
sale, pay more attention to the supply chain optimization, make the efficiency of money, platform will gradually give way to buy and sell, the more developed countries, platform model is no space for development.
by jingdong business model is the main reason of the continuing losses in nearly a decade over-reliance on marketing, price blindly, the low operating efficiency.
baidu news: in the United States, the B2C market, capital market more bullish on the amazon eBay bid obviously. But in China, taobao C2C has been represented dominate, why such a big contrast?
wong: the primary reason is the influence of the macroeconomic, taobao this model according to my point of view is a kind of “online real estate business”.
in the past ten years of rapid economic development, China is the most profitable commercial real estate, in the Internet who master flow entrance who make money. Taobao is the largest electricity industry’s entrance.
the second reason, China’s offline chain is very imperfect, a lot of second – and third-tier cities is not a complete chain of forms, management level is not high, not to mention to do online retail. In the United States, chain business mode is very perfect, to wal-mart and other cleaning equipment can produce a large supermarket chain company.
the third reason, the tax system. China’s most C shop does not need to pay tax, and the United States is a income reporting system, tax regulation is very strict. This determines the B store operating costs are higher than C store. But need to stress is that taobao and eBay mode difference is very big, taobao second-hand sales income is less than 1%, many stores are the C store clothes, do B shop business.
taobao in the future will not be like eBay mainly for second-hand goods trading and auction, because for the sale of second-hand business in China is very difficult to do, the interpersonal trust is too low, the Chinese concept of shopping are unlikely to accept the second-hand.
baidu news: the typical taobao C2C platform thoroughly become Tmall diversion channel in another five years?
huang: from a business perspective, to maximize the interests of the right, alibaba how to arrange the traffic is the company’s behavior, as long as they clear search ranking rules, C shop sellers can.
the alibaba system in addition to pay treasure, day the cat with the greatest value, the flow guide to day cat do big volume in alibaba’s overall interests and the public good.
the greatest threat to taobao now there are two. One is in the mobile terminal, the user mobile client migration trend obviously, how to retain the original owner and user, is a big problem. Followed by the traditional retail enterprise, a lot of people say the traditional enterprise don’t understand the electricity, but doesn’t mean they don’t understand, traditional enterprise sooner or later one day will understand electricity, they have a group of people who know Chinese business rules, backwardness power is amazing.
baidu news: what do you think of bargain and group buying industry in China?
huang: bargain, is a successful group-buying platform.
but there is no intrinsic group is a business logic of the industry, the target users, get the user cost is extremely high, and there is no a focal point, what do you recommend to a friend of preferential goods when he went to see it could have been logged out. By doing deals for relying on taobao, taobao sellers in the system product sales, is different from other sites.
group-buying websites are pay big money for traffic, price war has been endlessly, poor stickiness, the industry now only do the entrance to the company to make a profit. Compared to the bulk, I personally prefer vertical electric business, because the vertical electric business target users more clearly.
baidu news: do you expect in the next five years mobile electricity market size can have how old? In what proportion of overall electric dealer market can?
wong: I personally very bullish on mobile telephone.
because the user is in the mobile terminal, and the future will be more and more. This requires electricity enterprises must think in terms of mobile terminal products in the future. PC is the dominance of the search, the mobile terminal is a push. Now a lot of electricity enterprises do mobile end products or use the PC in the development of thinking, many engineers are doing PC products, hard to get rid of the mind-set.
in the mobile terminal, taobao could not continue to maintain dominance, like Google subversive Microsoft’s dominance in Facebook topple Google dominance, this is a historical trend. I personally very bullish on WeChat in the development of mobile power, because it is a completely adapt to the mobile Internet products, combined with electricity would break out great vitality. PC purchase conversion rate is very low (1% 1.5%), if the micro letter, is likely to increase conversion rate. As for more than five years mobile electricity can develop to large-scale, at least, I think, is 50-50, can account for half of the whole electric dealer market share.
baidu news: for young people interested in entrepreneurship in the field of electrical business, what do you suggest?
huang: over the past few years I’ve met a lot of young people in the electricity business, also have a lot of feelings.
if you want to mention advice, I think there are two. The first is love not big at the beginning, don’t think to do ma second from the start. Within the scope of a known had good do better. Even change the world, at first only need a fulcrum.
in addition, from the Angle of investors, creative light is not enough, need to find creative and practical points. Now than in the past, there are more opportunities, capital and market combined with the faster, the regulatory environment also become easy. All of these provided a lot of entrepreneurial opportunities for young people.
electricity field, especially mobile electric field, there are a lot of chance, it is a new market, full of underserved (underserved), such as mobile terminal security payment issues, it has not been well solved, this is because many companies now or in the PC thinking in doing, need new entrants to use their wisdom to solve.
interviews is baidu to build, on the dialog class section of the IT sector celebrities, baidu news hope to borrow this platform gathering all wisdom, and to provide fresh ideas for you.
huang, nickname “huang”, dangdang former COO (chief operating officer), Tmall (taobao mall), general manager of founding, the Chinese retail and hardcore electricity industry leaders.
huang graduated from xiamen university, more than 20 years of business, retail experience, had long served many global 500 companies executives, to the eastern and western different enterprise system and has a profound understanding of consumer behavior, is leading retail enterprise to create, restructuring has the expertise and business development.
huang in the well-known private equity fund warburg pincus investment is responsible for the middle-late electricity project, is also an angel.