Ghost shares 350 times earnings mobile game looming bubble?

hot hand swim concept is wildly popular, a-share market bubble and could trigger A new round of capital.

huayi announced yesterday, announced with 672 million yuan price, 15.87 times the takeover premium tour company hand merit a 50.88% stake in the science and technology. News, huayi brothers volume surge, after checking and quickly harden, finally closed at 31.14 yuan.

on the same day, as a traditional toy manufacturers, le shares also revealed out into the field of mobile game ideas, and new progress in business in shenzhen stock exchange to disclose his hand swim, mobile game business according to the shenzhen branch has been in the works, the product is working. Is an unbelievable and we haven’t product molding, high music shares under the stimulus message in yesterday afternoon strong, harden price 7.74 yuan.

just two days ago, hundreds of vision statement to clarify every game rumours $2.7 billion merger, said the company cooperation intention to contact only at the initial stage. Just a clarification announcement, also direct stimulation of blockbuster shares harden the next day.

mobile game concepts like stimulant a-share market, stimulate many stocks rose sharply in the past six months. The most crazy is the flagship of the concept of mobile game middle treasure, it to more than 350 times earnings is regarded as the first “ghost shares” on the market this year.

crazy to capital market for the mobile game company of top 20. Touch technology CEO Chen Haozhi admitted to tencent science and technology, the current top mobile game companies by capital appreciation, in under the condition of the economic downturn, mobile game industry is in the midst of the outbreak stage, from the money recently, the growth of real, nature is the preferred domestic investors.

ChinaJoy expo 2013 Shanghai published on a game industry report also confirmed: as of the end of June this year, mobile game users to scale up to 171 million people, compared to the same period last year growth of 119.3%. Although hand swim swim on the tip of the market scale is only one 9, but the user scale has been more than the market, and is the only game continue presents the fast growth of the niche.

however, popular mobile game concept at the same time there are also concerns. A mobile game industry to tencent technology, said every month launched dozens of domestic mobile game, really hot or last year, a few, such as “I’m MT”, “big head”, etc. Listed as the new mobile game, the user also flow condition, the mobile game market channel cost is very high, very few mobile game real money.

there is local media pointed out that there are 80 mobile game team, hangzhou larger less than 10, only four or five home for the vc. In spite of the tour market is hot hand, many participants, but really can make money less than one over ten, more is losing money. Former blue port wang lei also pointed out that the COO in chengdu have several tour companies face collapse, hand already to send out salary situation.

even if successful tour also faces malaises hand: a hand normally only fire for a period of time, such as angry birds, “temple run”, if can’t keep up with new products, is likely to be a social game developer company, overdraft investor confidence in the game market. A senior mobile game industry officials said not to worry about, this might be in the subsequent development of the mobile game market very bad effect.

tour concept stock points into gold hand

red above listed online game concept of middle treasure in the game market is flat, in the capital markets than shanda games, giant network, perfect world better big game companies such as much more strong.

on Friday, middle treasure stock once seal harden board, dynamic price-earnings ratio is more than 370 times, since the second quarter through the earn enough attention in the market. Important reason is that middle treasure shares surged on hand tour concept KuaiBanChe: agent mobile game “fairy fight”.

the data shows, the fairy wars is forged by chengdu ink ‘technology, creators of a famous game producer Chen ink based on the mobile end 2 dmmorpg (2 d massively multiplayer online role playing game) products. Formerly known as “fairy fight” kunlun ten thousand d acting operation page “ultimate fairy” mobile game version, it is considered to be in shenzhen ink ‘developed game a most failure, industry evaluation is not high.

there are even media broke the game system design has serious defects. Such as middle bao an external system, with or without plugins, as long as a few minutes short of requirement, the system will automatically figure will be moved to the dangerous area was killed cause players to buy feats in unwittingly killed. In addition, the implementation of the key system error report would appear, cause players drops.

actually, middle treasure on the performance has been poor. Annual report showed that middle treasure in 2010, 2011, 2012 net profit of 35.5164 million yuan, 12.2121 million yuan, 16.692 million yuan, compared with 13.65%, 64.12%, 13.65% respectively. Mobile game is only a concept, to support the middle treasure revenue and earnings are still listed as the main game “fight wars.

middle of high p/e ratio, compared the listed counterparts in the United States is envy envy hate. At the same time the giant network value rate is 11.41 times as large, shanda games p/e ratio of 5.84 times. The 2012 annual report, the giant network annual net revenue of 2.075 billion yuan, net profit of 993.7 million. Shanda full-year net revenue of 4.682 billion yuan, the annual net profit of 1.113 billion yuan.

for this performance, a top middle treasure to tencent technology, said don’t do assessment, but he stressed that the tour industry hand in a stage of rapid development, including huayi brothers rival acquisition has a core value, not simply to share price.

is not only the middle bao, zhang interest on the products of science and technology also did not see anyone, but this year in the capital markets are also special.

palm boring technology is currently in suspended phase, the sources said the suspension was prepared by palm boring nearly 2 billion yuan to buy tour “big head” hand play crab technology developers. It could be this boring technology’s second major capital movement.

now play crab technology on the development of “big head” running water is close to 3 million, a analysis says, once the palm boring technology acquisition play crab technology shares could rise again.

mobile game concept also attracted other capital. Le co is a traditional toy manufacturers, committed to the electronic electric development, production and sales of plastic toys, products cover electric trains, wire control simulation of an airplane, robots, electric vehicles, etc.

although high stake is expected in the first half of 2013 profit of 51.659 million yuan to 63.5803 million yuan, up 30% to 60%, is also facing sluggish growth, le shares have been brewing to expand our business to the emerging field. In le co announced yesterday that shenzhen branch to their products are developing.

and high le co mobile game product with 3 d printing without necessarily associated with its original business, the success or failure remains to be seen, announcement once issued, the share price is harden quickly.

a long-term tracking stock on tencent’s science and technology, said the concept of mobile game is very hot, huayi brothers spent 672 million yuan buying merit technology 50.88% stake in the mobile game companies appear to be deficient, but can be quickly obtained from the stock market return, and take the money to buy more, once the share price soaring, the listed company and can better and reasonable looking for new targets.

industry risk gradually approaching

touch technology CEO Chen Haozhi, points out that the early tour market or hand, giant acquisition will in turn affected the existence of three dial the company on the market, the first wave is good companies such as Banks, there is a line performance, the valuation is also a line of price. Must scale income products also calculate in this first game, the number is far not enough rob the takeover of listed companies.

Chen Haozhi, according to the second dial is flat, but have expected, the wave also didn’t how much, then the third set is to be able to “stories”, the team background is good, think how good a company can do the products. In most cases the purchase price will be more and more high, but there is no product until the third set, no performance of the company by the high price is mergers and acquisitions, the market’s bubble.

Chen Haozhi rival market is still very optimistic, but as more and more enterprises to advance to the quarterfinals, the mobile phone market has been more and more difficult to make money.

still outstanding CEO Mr. Xing said, mobile games become more and more difficult now, mobile phone games list is three list, valuable is the top 10, users to download the game could not have been turned down, turn to 20 people have been less.

“” I’m MT” model may not be replication.” Mr. Xing said, “I’m MT” is at the right time, don’t even need to large-scale promotion, can absorb a large number of shifting from the PC to the Internet to the mobile Internet users. With a large number of users has been transferred to the mobile terminal, demographic dividend will disappear in the future.

what is more worrying is that mobile game opportunity value is being more and more people, more and more big companies are involved in mobile game market. Shanda games CEO xiang-dong zhang said publicly in 2013 at the peak BBS of chinajoy, through independent research and development, introduction and cooperative development way to launch a new tour products, hand in the second half of more than 30 games waiting for testing and online.

industry advertising co., LTD., has the strength of the company has more money to do the promotion, will make the advertisement cost price increases, and game industry has many problems, false advertising, a lot of new companies didn’t play games. Mr. Xing said, “mobile game operation is a pit, the game continue to operate well is very important. “I’m MT” also constantly spend, spend a week two million advertising is very normal.”

Mr. Xing have a concern, as more and more advertising to distributors, some developers will take a quick buck, lead to players produce aversion to mobile phone games, the industry will go the web game.

competition also brings the investment risk, the industry’s boom-bust examples abound. Over the years with “an” and other popular games, the company has always been a social game industry leader. Company was the most successful on the Facebook platform of the third party company. But ipos since 2011, the company is unable to reproduce after the success of the share price fell sharply.

company in the capital market a lackluster performance for many investors are tired of the game industry. Digi-capital founder Tim morrell believes that many investors game “has completely quit the game market.

investment hand swim without strong performance support, risk may also be revealed. Senior people zhang jun to tencent technology, said the current enterprise to find new profit growth point, if the future whole into properties of science and technology tour business, hand more imagination space. “Capital markets have leverage amplification effect, different industry valuation, and concept of capital market speculation, amplifying leverage.” Zhang cautioned that acquisitions undifferentiated mass, concept of market speculation, for this kind of mobile game also need to differentiate between acquisition, need to be careful investment.

source: tencent technology